We Can Win
This is a bit of a departure from my normal content, in that it's actually hopeful. We're at a point in which things are looking pretty dire, and we can see, on a daily basis, that the situation is only getting worse. But there is reason for optimism, even in the face of all that's going wrong.
I don't say this because I think we need a pep talk, or because I think this will be easy, or because I've forgotten the very real consequences of the actions of the Trump administration so far. I haven't. Civil liberties, checks and balances, everyday boundaries palpable and merely agreed upon are being eroded. People have died, and many more had their lives upended, because of Trump's actions just within the first 100 days of his second term. This is not regret on my part for the line I drew in November. I maintain that genocide is a moral boundary I could not cross to maintain some sense of security for myself and my people here in the United States. Nor do I think a Dem returning to the White House is the way out of this mess–I actually think it's the second-worst possible outcome.
To borrow a very hokey metaphor, I am writing this letter today to point out the light that's showing through everything broken. To reiterate: things are bad–they're quite bad–but there's a way out of this. I think it's a real possibility. The trick is, we've got to be ready to seize the opportunity while we can. The window on this is closing, and the way out after it shuts is much, much bloodier.
The Facts, Bad and Good
We stand today (only a few days away from publication for a change) on unsteady ground. The majority of Trump's tariffs are temporarily paused (to goose the market for his friends); the Insurrection Act has been temporarily not recommended for use; much of the government apparatus outside of Trump's immediate administration stands opposed to some of his actions. This is a heavily mixed bag. What is still continuing unabated are ICE raids, a military presence at the border, and the creep of fascist red flags against marginalized peoples. The last of these points is actually relatively new, and quite bad–making lists of disabled people is a very obvious Nazi thing, and it does not bode well. A list of people who have received gender-affirming care has already been in the offing in Texas.
And, while it shouldn't need repeated, Trump has created a concentration camp in a foreign country in El Salvador's CECOT, which is another very obvious Nazi thing, seeing as Auschwitz was not in Germany. He has stated that he intends for US citizens to be put in this prison. It is, to be sure, bad enough that he is deporting anyone to this location–borders being violence and our implementation of them particularly so.
However. The ways that Trump, and Musk, have broken the federal government and broken precedents was not wholly strategic nor, for that matter, whole. As much power has been seized, there exists still more that remains, and is at least somewhat opposed to Trump's movements. Moreover, outside of the federal government, Trump has not adequately quashed the opposition–the media, such as it is, has done as good a job at revealing some of his bullshit as it did a poor job revealing Biden's. Figures from across the political spectrum, including people I would generally count as enemies, are calling for some pretty wild action. David Brooks, a neoliberal shit, has called for a "civic uprising" in the New York Times–I did not have that on my bingo card. A young libertarian very publicly asked when we should begin to exact violence against the government. Bill Kristol said we should abolish ICE. While I do not like these people, I will readily work with them to put a stop to this current fascist incursion*. **
Trump's lack of solidarity within the broader federal government is another critical weakness, though one I want to warn you that we cannot rely upon. We obviously have already seen opposition to Trump in what should have been a veritable nuke in his living room–unilateral opposition in the Supreme Court to Trump's deportation of Kilmar Abrego Garcia, and an order to return him to the US–plink off his metaphorical armor and do, simply, nothing. But it's not worthless opposition–it inspires anger, if some despair along with it. And it's not to say that all opposition will be so empty; Robert Evans posited a very real possibility this summer, which is that as we go out into the streets (like we tend to do), Trump will use the Insurrection Act to deploy the US military against us, resulting in opposition not against us, but against Trump himself. This rift would be chaotic, scary, but likely result in Trump's ouster.
*The trick here is not letting them simply continue being neolib and thus immediately putting us back in this position within a matter of one and a half election cycles.
**The Governor of Illinois has now called for mass disruption.
Where You Come In
Last week, I urged you to reach out to any libs you might know, and to drop some sprinkles of radicalizing media in their fishbowl. You should keep doing that, for sure, but we also need to be doing similar work everywhere. You should be letting everyone in your sphere of influence know where we stand–and that there's as much reason for hope as there is fear.
We have the potential, I think, to take part in something comparable to a colour revolution: a largely non-violent (but not falsely so) uprising that, rather than involving outright warfare, sees our people disrupting the status quo in such a grand scale as to force the government's hand. This will involve considerable risk on our part; the government is absolutely going to respond with violence, with arrests, deportations, and almost certainly killing. Any large movement will be met with Trump invoking the Insurrection Act or not even bothering, and simply ordering the military on the populace. But even if they remain loyal to their Commander in Chief, this doesn't mean it won't simply enrage and embolden our people further.
There are two reasons I think this is possible:
- An enormous number of people are incensed at Trump's moves, recognize them for the fascism they are, and are calling for mass action to stand against him.
- The siphoning of wealth from the poorest to the richest has redoubled in the last 100 days. Your parents and grandparents, if they are so lucky, likely lost thousands in their retirement funds thanks to Trump's antics. This money went directly from people caught unawares to people in the know–Trump's people. The antipathy this has caused, and the broader economic havoc the tariffs are wreaking, means that people are and will be hungry in a literal sense. Hungry people, famously, don't tolerate their governments for long.
Next week, we'll talk a little bit more about more practical steps you can take in preparation for what is likely to be a scary hot American summer. For now, though it may not seem like much, I genuinely want you to continue talking to people. Talk to your groups about this, to friends, to work buddies, your parents, whomever. We need numbers in this, and that starts with not only letting people know where things stand, but that there's the possibility to stand against them.