The Hydrologic Cycle Upends & AMOC Collapse Predictions
A few months ago, I started seeing two articles over and over again: we have begun to see the breakdown of the hydrologic cycle; and is AMOC going to collapse soon? This occurred on the release of a report on the subject of the former, and a open letter by a number of climate scientists on the subject of the latter. And while they aren't explicitly tied to each other as yet, I want to talk about them together today because they certainly will be in the coming years.
The hydrologic cycle is what you expect it to be: the means by which water is moved around on the planet through processes like evaporation and precipitation. By saying that the cycle has been disrupted, scientists mean that the way we get arguably the world's most important resource–fresh water–is at risk. This is as dire a problem as we can have, really, and you don't have to look far in fiction to find examples of nightmarish landscapes in which water is scarce. It's a position I would have hoped wasn't coming for us* for another decade or two.
AMOC, meanwhile, we've talked about roughly two to three dozen times before. But since we're talking about the disruption of the hydrologic cycle, it's worth addressing again, as the slowdown or collapse of AMOC most definitely causes further disruption.
*By us I of course mean here in the United States(**), as fresh water is and has been harder to come by in regions exploited by us and other colonial powers.
**And of course fresh water isn't even guaranteed here, because we all live in hell.
The Hydrologic Cycle
The Global Commission on the Economics of Water is both banal as all get out and somehow evil-sounding, right? But this commission was formed a couple years ago to review how the hydrologic cycle is performing and how it is being managed by people, and the report's conclusions are just, humane (if still capital-focused), and sobering. To put things concisely, we've botched it. But our mismanagement of natural resources isn't the only problem, as climate change has stressed the cycle and is putting the pinch on our supply.
Probably the most important figure in the report is the prediction that our demand for fresh water is going to outpace supply by 40% at the end of this decade. This shortfall is anticipated to shrink global economies by at least 8% by 2050–and that is only the impact of a water shortage, leaving all other climate impacts unspoken. These are chilling numbers, and the report emphasizes that this burden is unduly felt in poorer regions where climate change is, of course, having outsized impacts.
Unlike some other problems we face, the United States is not uniquely sheltered from the hazard of a fresh water shortage. Plenty of people in the States today are without fresh water or face shortages due to infrastructure (see Flint, Michigan), mismanagement (the Colorado River), and the overexploitation of resources (Texas and the Ogallala Aquifer). You and your community are almost certainly not immune to one or all of these problems, and unfortunately, due to the fact that we've been poisoning the planet for decades, you can't simply put out a bucket of water, pray for rain, and think you're good.
A water shortage in your area is something for which you should prepare in the most practical and simple way: store water. While one can hope that it will rain in a timely fashion and one could feasibly filter rainwater adequately to make it potable, we are simply no longer in an era in which we can exist off hope, luck, and prayers. While you have the means to do so, put some water away for yourself and your community. One gallon, per person, per day, is the metric. Start small by saving up for three days as a precaution against an acute disaster like a flood, but do your best to expand this–basically for as much space as you reasonably have.
AMOC: Take 24
The open letter by the climate scientists regarding AMOC is fairly accessible, to start with, and I'd encourage a direct read. But briefly, upon reviewing current information, the undersigned above (the above undersigned?) state their concern over AMOC due to mounting evidence to the contrary of recent IPCC findings that AMOC is not likely to collapse in this century–with "medium confidence."
While medium confidence of a world-shaking event is already not the most heartening news from the faraway land of 2023, there are several more recent reports that point toward AMOC having already begun to collapse. This page from Oceanography does a great job of breaking down some of the evidence. Basically, we've already witnessed a marked decline in the AMOC's flow, and a telltale sign of its collapse is already present in observed models–the "cold blob" that floats south of Greenland.
With the end of AMOC comes, to stay on topic, a shift in rainfall patterns. While this would occur mostly along tropical belts, the effects are so far-reaching that it's difficult to rule out the possibility that rain won't be affected in the United States, as well. And it's important to knock off any US-only blinders you may have on, as this shift in rainfall is likely to destabilize European agriculture, which feeds an enormous part of the world's population, as well as the Amazon, which is just one more tipping point in our series of world-dominoes. By the time it falls over, it's hard to put a price tag on the damages, but it's easy enough to say your life, no matter where that happens to be, becomes much more difficult.
Tips and Tricks for Surviving the Water Wars
There aren't any. Unlike most of my other prep techniques and approaches, when it comes to water, there is no plethora of solutions and none of them are entirely sustainable. You can't just run down to the creek if you don't have one, and you can't just count on what comes out of the tap to always be clean, or even, you know, there. The solution for scarcity of water is simply to have water. Pulling water out of the air or doing desert survival techniques like making little tarp-tents to eke out a water bottle's worth from a hole are insufficient.
You can begin simply enough by buying water in gallon jugs, or by thoroughly cleaning juice or milk jugs (thoroughly, I said!) and filling them with water (filtered, ideally). Ultimately, though, you're going to want more permanent solutions, as even in ideal circumstances the gallon jugs you get at the supermarket break down over the course of a couple years and will leak. So, buy more robust containers, fill them, and keep them. Rotate this water our every six months or so, or decon these containers once every six months by adding eight drops of bleach to the container per gallon of water.
While a community project that utilizes a large amount of rainfall is ideal, and we always want to be community-focused, sanitizing rainwater to a degree that is safe for consumption is a big task no matter how many people are involved. It's better to apply rainwater directly to gardens rather than capturing it for human consumption, and this brings us right back around to my first solution, which is buying and storing water long-term to combat shortages.