It's Getting Dark

I'm writing this from the past, both because that's how time works and because it's literally scheduled to go out three weeks from now. But, for a change, writing this from three weeks ago is a useful tactic: I intend on this letter summing up some of the worst things that the Trump administration has done and to put them into the context of our descent into a fully authoritarian regime. While you reading this will already know all of the other shit that's happened, right now, as I write, I can draw a kind of line in the sand locating us on the downward slope. We're not there yet, but the fragility of the "Republic," insofar as it has been one, has probably not been so apparent since the Civil War.

As is usual with Trump, the zone is flooded. Of particular concern is how Trump (and Elon–of course, Elon) is smashing the economy, any hopes for any kind of reins on climate change and our means of preparing for it, and, simply put, freedom. Let's not clear our throats any longer.

Trump's Economy

We've discussed how tariffs aren't some kind of magic tax that brings money into federal coffers that repair our streets and pay for Medicare–as if that kind of thing weren't already on the chopping block. But Trump has indeed put into place multiple tariffs on our biggest trading partners, with severe implications on goods and services in your life. Trump has now put tariffs in place, lifted, and paused tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China (I think none are paused with China, actually).

This back and forth is causing chaos across the capital E Economy, with stocks diving and any gains seen since Trump's election erased as of today. Now, I don't really care that Wall Street is having a bad day, except that they make sure to share their pain with us. I also want to note that Shawn Fain, the guy behind the 2028 strike, thinks that the tariffs are good because pressure needs to be put on imports in order to bolster US jobs. Which makes sense coming from someone whose job is to look out for US union workers. He's said, in the article above, that, if regular Americans were to pay increased prices, it's the fault of the corporations gouging prices and not Trump. Which, sure, I guess. But also you have to know that these corporations are going to do that.

Emphasizing all this is Trump's own admission that his tariffs might create a recession, and that it will take time for them to pay off. This rather mirrors his admission swiftly after election that he can't control the price of groceries. Basically, any cure he says he has, he won't wind up administering to the public–which is pretty accurate for an administration with RFK Jr. in it. And speaking of things he can't control, Canada is preparing its own retaliatory tariffs against the United States, and China just announced a 15% tariff against multiple US farm exports. I know very little about the economy, but a fair amount about US history (trust I'm not about to burst into song). When the United States starts slinging tariffs around, and other world powers retaliate, people like us suffer.

Climate

It's no surprise that we're in worse shape on the climate front than we were a few months ago, but there are a couple things in particular that are more worrisome than the general end to the woke climate change agenda or what have you, and the slashing of credits for EVs that would, ultimately, just limp American car culture along.

Mostly, I'm concerned about Trump signing an executive order that would destroy endangered species protections and open up over 250 million acres of federal land to potential logging. It's not that US forests are a tipping point, or anything, and that this one action dooms us all–but it does suck. It sucks for us, it sucks for the world, for the animals, for the trees. It is a massive amount of carbon released into the atmosphere and it is a big carbon sink that will no longer sink. Were that much acreage destroyed (for those of you not acre-savvy, this is nearly the size of California and Texas combined), there would likely be a not-imperceptible change in weather, for the worse. Drier, hotter–the stuff we're not currently lacking.

Then there's the other thing: Trump has cut roughly 20% of the NOAAs workforce, or over 2300 employees. In addition to climate research, the NOAA is responsible for weather forecasts. Yes–that basic and that all-encompassing. Without the NOAA, our weather forecasts, should we have any at all, will be commercial; you'll pay for Amazon StormWatch+ or be stuck with the free basic version that doesn't do push notifications when a tornado is about to flatten your neighborhood. The NOAA has been bound for destruction for a while now, due to the fact that they say the word "climate" sometimes and save the lives of poor people on occasion.

Freedom or Lack Thereof

Saturday night, Mahmoud Khalil, a Palestinian activist and student at Columbia University, was detained by ICE agents. Initially agents stated that Khalil's student visa had been revoked, but when it became clear Khalil was a resident with a green card, they said that was revoked as well. A spokesperson for Homeland Security stated explicitly that Khalil was arrested* and to be deported due to his involvement in pro-Palestine protests. Proceedings have been paused by a federal judge, but after Khalil's arrest, he was temporarily disappeared, as his wife could not find him at his supposed detention facility, and as of the Sunday following his arrest, did not know his location.

It should be perfectly clear to you that this is not okay. The potential deportation of an activist for a political position is chilling, as is an arrest for the same (except for Nazis, of course–but we don't arrest Nazis, do we?). And this is more than enough to be worried about except that it's clearly also the first step by this administration in attempting to stamp out free speech. I say first–more than likely I mean most obvious and am forgetting steps that pale in comparison.

*Technically not arrested, as Khalil is not being charged with a crime. Which is bad.

Think Back

I won't waste much time trying to imagine what has happened in the three weeks, but it's likely pretty bad. You're in a better position, having knowledge of the future/your present and getting to peel back the last three weeks to see how bad things already were. I think that it's important that you measure what's changed in order to see how fast all this is going.

Having said that, and measured the changes in the past few weeks, we need to be bracing ourselves for some truly rough times ahead. Summer is a turbulent season for climate impacts and for unrest, and we can likely expect a fair bit of both. We'll talk more about gearing up for that in the coming weeks. For now, be thinking about the groups you've formed, and how you can begin ramping up your dialogue with them–then ramping up tactics.