War in the Middle East

Let's talk about a hypothetical that is very much grounded in reality. Over the last couple weeks, by the time this letter is delivered, Israel conducted two separate assassinations in two separate countries: they killed the leader of the political faction of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Iran; and they killed Fuad Shukr, Hezbollah's military commander, in a suburban neighborhood of Beirut, Lebanon. Ignoring, for the moment, that Israel has regularly conducted bombings of Lebanon and assassinations in Iran, think about this for a moment. Israel has launched attacks on two sovereign nations in order to assassinate political leaders. This is the sort of thing that, were it any other nation, the United States would've done launched cruise missiles. It's truly wild, and the sort of thing that normally only the United States has the gumption to carry out.

These aren't just simple attacks, or depthless killings of officials. Ismail Haniyeh was the man in Hamas talking with Israel about a ceasefire, and without him negotiations are likely to stall–and it's very likely that's exactly what Israel wants. If you haven't noticed, Israel is goading multiple nations at a time with bombings–supposedly in self-defense. Syria, Lebanon, Iran, Yemen (thanks to the US) have all been bombed, including with the banned chemical weapon white phosphorus. As Israel isn't actively at war with these countries (ostensibly, and, more to the point, yet), these are crimes. Crimes meant to goad multiple nations into open hostility with Israel, so that the United States is compelled to intervene, so that Israel can effectively remake the map of the Middle East once the dust settles.

How We Got Here From There

This began nearly a hundred years ago, with the First Nakba–Israel's initial colonization of Palestine which saw the deaths of thousands and the displacement of nearly a million people. And over time, and over several wars, Israel colonized more and more of Palestine until they had carved Palestinian territory into the two regions we're familiar with today: Gaza, and the West Bank. This is a considerable condensation of history, but it's one we've discussed before. Note that along the way Israel carried out assassinations across the greater region and helped instigate the Lebanese Civil War.

After a lifetime of colonization, and a lifetime of negotiations for a solution to the ongoing crisis, Palestinians in Gaza fell in behind Hamas as their governing body. In recent years–the last thirty or so–Palestinians have taken a less passive approach to their pursuit of freedom. This has included everything from the terroristic* attacks like bus bombings, to full warfare, and peaceful marches. To be clear, no matter what form their resistance has taken, Israel responded in an asymmetrically violent manner. Look at the list of casualties on Wikipedia's Israeli-Palestinian conflict article and you'll see what I mean. Israel, consistently, goes far beyond any attack on them with their response, as they did during the first and second Intifada and during the current genocide.

Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving Prime Minister, has been clear about his intentions going forward. He brought a map to a meeting with the UN that showed a greatly expanded Israel, encompassing territories currently within the borders of Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt–with no Palestine to be seen. This has been his, and his party's, goal. Any effort to quash this conflict is at odds with Netanyahu's dream of a "Greater Israel."

By killing Ismail Haniyeh, Israel sought to stymie any ceasefire talks. And, of course, there is the goading of Iran by Israel striking within the country–not only that but striking at a political leader in Tehran. Israel bombed the Iranian Consulate in Syria in April, and it was widely thought that Iran's counterattack would plunge the region into war. Instead, Iran's response was remarkably measured, and so deliberate that they provided Israel with time and means to prepare in order to avoid heavy casualties–letting them save face without inviting wider conflict.

*recall that around here "terrorist" doesn't mean "evil bad man do bad thing" like it does in most western media. Palestinians have been colonized and brutally subjugated. Settlers frequently terrorize Palestinians, and Gazans, as a reminder, have been living in an outsized open-air prison for decades.

What War Means

It seems pretty clear, though, that Israel won't rest until they've dragged the region into war–tempered responses from Iran or no. The killing of Haniyeh pushed Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' military daddy, into a complete leadership position. Sinwar, for his part, has been leading Hamas from the beginning, and is believed to be the person who orchestrated the October 7th attacks. Which is to say that while Israel may have wanted to force their enemy into a corner to exterminate them, they've also ensured that enemy intends to fight its way out.

Lebanon and Iran are obviously meant to be embroiled in this conflict, and Iran's entry all but guarantees that the United States is drawn into direct warfare. Syria and Yemen are likely entrants. Egypt is probably on the table, and Turkey's Erdogan has occasionally made threats. This is not a war to be laughed off because it's far away, or because it primarily involves an ally rather than us as the prime mover. Full US involvement likely means we'll pull some 100,000+ poor teenagers into these countries for twenty or so years and try to steal all their oil.

Ultimately, oil and land is what this is about. These things mean money for the people in power. War means money. And for us, it means a lot of what you'd expect: everything is going to cost more, because everything is moved by oil, which will be in contest for the duration. If you've been pinching pennies, prepare to get out a vise. Groceries, gas, tires, electronics–it will all be more expensive. If you're able to travel less and grow more food, it would behoove you to do so (with the understanding that for now the growing food part is coming out of season).

War also means a predictable uptick in violence at home perpetrated by the right. If your community has Muslim members, or folks who appear to be of broadly non-white descent in general, it would be a good idea to reach out to them in support. Plan to have people ready to respond in the event that we see riots like the UK has seen recently, as these folks love to learn from one another and may see those riots as a good example.

War will also mean refugees–and a likely tightening of our borders against them. Be ready to put whatever pressure you can muster against our politicians in favor of letting in refugees. We're not in a good place for this, seeing as how even the Dems are cracking down on asylum seekers, but we have got to do what we can to mitigate this damage. The US has propped up Israel's war effort so far, and domestically there hasn't been the kind of opposition one would like to see. It will become much less feasible to put up any kind of opposition once we are embroiled in a war proper.

Two More Things

It's worth noting that the US military is one of the greatest contributors to greenhouse gases in the world. A war means a lot more CO2 being produced, and fewer resources focused on any kind of shift toward green energy. In short, this war, should it go off, is another nail in the coffin of a habitable planet.

It is beyond worth noting that we should remember who is at the heart of this war: the Palestinian people, who have been colonized and killed for generations. This is the fruit of colonialism, capitalism, and white supremacy. We have got to put an end to all three.